mansard roof

Today is another good day for us election geeks. Sunday we had the virtually uncontested Russian Presidential election. Today, we have two major Democratic primaries and two minor ones. Today could settle the Democratic primary. Unfortunately for the Clinton campaign, she needs to win every state from here on out by at least a few delegates to garner enough to win (Assuming Super Delegates are split among the two candidates; a likely scenario if Clinton 'came back'). A tie is a Clinton loss. It's no longer about the expectations game - perhaps that problem has shifted to Obama - it's about results. She simply needs to gain about 100 delegates more than Obama over the next few weeks to win.

Daily Kos has their predictions up as follows (with a few caveats):
"Ohio: Clinton +4
Texas: Obama +12
Rhode Island: Clinton +6
Vermont: Obama +35"

Zogby has a new poll showing that Clinton may have made some headway in Texas but Obama has made major headway in Ohio. We could have some very unexpected results.

There's also the Texas Two Step, the primary / caucus delegate split. We should know results around 11 or 12 PM central, but final delegate counts may take days to tabulate.

My guess (Delegate count, not primary / caucus result)
Ohio: Clinton +5%
Texas: Obama +2%
Rhode Island: Clinton +3%
Vermont: Obama +30%

I think Clinton has made bukku bucks in the past week - coming off as more personable. She effectively changed the dialog and stopped the Obama campaign potency. I don't think it was enough, though. It could be too little, too late.

According to CNN's delegate count, this would put the results at:
Clinton: 1454, a +14.5% increase.
Obama: 1563, a +13.4% increase.
Overall, however, that would be negligible relative change - 109 delegate difference still.

So, as you can see, it'll take a monumental change for Clinton to win - much more than a tie. It'll take a tie - until the convention in June - for Obama to cement his candidacy (The remainder of the states, if tied - or tied on average - based on these results - would give Obama 2047 delegates, 22 more than needed to be selected).



And now for something a little less heavy:

video by Vampire Weekend