neon bible

Look tonight for a comment on "Obama's Tax Evasion"

More Beirut

I'll sing of the walls of the well
And the house at the top of the hill
I'll sing of the bottles of wine
That we left on our old windowsill
I'll sing all the years you will spend
Getting sadder and older, oh love

best friends in song

Another song I can't get out of my head.

Also:


Wish I hadn't missed them when they came to Madison... :-/

Remember Ted Haggard?

I wonder if anyone has seen this:


It's Richard Dawkins v. Ted Haggard in a fight over evolution. Hilarious. What do people in the scientific community think of people like Ted Haggard? Or, for that matter, Richard Dawkins? Are science and religion mutually exclusive?

--And I've already broken my "new" rules - quality over quantity, form with my function, etc. C'est la vie.

Kid's Rock!!!!11!

Another funny example of intertextuality.

predictions and results

Well, my predictions were right and wrong. While my numbers were off - way off - my totals were only 10 off.

As of the current count, Hillary is only 10 delegates closer to Obama (1451 for Obama to 1365 for Clinton).

What does this mean?
1. Hillary has to woo more delegates than Obama in the coming states.
2. Hillary has to spend more money in the coming states - a tie, like in yesterday's contests, is a loss.
3. There are 1,207 delegates in remaining races. To lock up the nomination before the convention (August, but the last delegates are allocated in June), she needs to receive (Assuming Superdelegates stay as currently pledged). Hillary needs to receive 54% of those unpledged delegates. It's certainly do-able. Obama needs to receive 47% of the unpledged delegates. Just looking at that math, if the remainder of the races "average out" to a virtual tie, then Obama will be the nominee in August.

Now, since there are fewer big states, and more space between, each candidate can really make their case state by state. They also have time to regroup, assess their campaign, and strategize. While Obama has a convincing lead, and last night certainly wasn't a win, the campaign is virtually 'wide open'.


I've been thinking about my multimedia project. Which political or economic concepts are people out there most confused about - or simply want to know more about? I'm thinking my format will just be 3-4 minute videos quickly explaining a concept or idea and relating it to historical or current economic and political situations. Any ideas???

mansard roof

Today is another good day for us election geeks. Sunday we had the virtually uncontested Russian Presidential election. Today, we have two major Democratic primaries and two minor ones. Today could settle the Democratic primary. Unfortunately for the Clinton campaign, she needs to win every state from here on out by at least a few delegates to garner enough to win (Assuming Super Delegates are split among the two candidates; a likely scenario if Clinton 'came back'). A tie is a Clinton loss. It's no longer about the expectations game - perhaps that problem has shifted to Obama - it's about results. She simply needs to gain about 100 delegates more than Obama over the next few weeks to win.

Daily Kos has their predictions up as follows (with a few caveats):
"Ohio: Clinton +4
Texas: Obama +12
Rhode Island: Clinton +6
Vermont: Obama +35"

Zogby has a new poll showing that Clinton may have made some headway in Texas but Obama has made major headway in Ohio. We could have some very unexpected results.

There's also the Texas Two Step, the primary / caucus delegate split. We should know results around 11 or 12 PM central, but final delegate counts may take days to tabulate.

My guess (Delegate count, not primary / caucus result)
Ohio: Clinton +5%
Texas: Obama +2%
Rhode Island: Clinton +3%
Vermont: Obama +30%

I think Clinton has made bukku bucks in the past week - coming off as more personable. She effectively changed the dialog and stopped the Obama campaign potency. I don't think it was enough, though. It could be too little, too late.

According to CNN's delegate count, this would put the results at:
Clinton: 1454, a +14.5% increase.
Obama: 1563, a +13.4% increase.
Overall, however, that would be negligible relative change - 109 delegate difference still.

So, as you can see, it'll take a monumental change for Clinton to win - much more than a tie. It'll take a tie - until the convention in June - for Obama to cement his candidacy (The remainder of the states, if tied - or tied on average - based on these results - would give Obama 2047 delegates, 22 more than needed to be selected).



And now for something a little less heavy:

video by Vampire Weekend